China’s antimony ingot production declined by more than 46% month-on-month in February 2026, according to industry assessments by SMM. The sharp contraction marks a significant reversal after several months of recovery that had been underway since September last year.
Market participants attribute the decline primarily to seasonal and operational factors. Prolonged cold weather in northern regions disrupted mining activity, with freezing conditions constraining ore extraction and tightening the supply of raw materials. At the same time, temporary shutdowns and production curtailments during the Chinese New Year holiday further reduced output, as many smelters and processors suspended operations during the festive period. Although the magnitude of the drop appears substantial, many industry observers consider it a seasonal adjustment rather than a structural deterioration in supply fundamentals.
The sudden contraction may create short-term tightness in the domestic antimony market, particularly if downstream demand remains stable. However, expectations for March remain relatively cautious. Market consensus suggests that national production levels are likely to remain broadly in line with February figures or show only a modest recovery as mining and smelting operations gradually normalize following winter disruptions and holiday-related closures.
Since May 2022, SMM has published national assessments of antimony ingot production, including antimony ingots, crude antimony conversion products, and antimony cathodes. The survey covers 33 producers across eight provinces and represents more than 99% of national production capacity, with a sample capacity exceeding 20,000 metric tons, providing a near-comprehensive view of China’s antimony output.
Aleksei Andrievskii is the founder of the ANDRIEVSKII SEA WEALTH family office in Cyprus, a member of the advisory board at Bendura Bank AG, Liechtenstein