While investors remain captivated by artificial intelligence, defence stocks and global technology giants, European aviation continues to trade at surprisingly modest valuations.
Over the past several weeks, the sector has received a series of increasingly positive signals. Oil prices have declined significantly, directly reducing fuel costs for airlines. At the same time, expectations are growing that geopolitical tensions in the Middle East may gradually ease, while the upcoming European summer travel season is shaping up to be one of the strongest in recent years.
Against this backdrop, shares of major European carriers have begun attracting the attention of large institutional investors. BlackRock has increased its stake in Lufthansa, the company's Chairman of the Supervisory Board continues to purchase shares in the open market, and the airline group itself is expanding its strategic cooperation with Airbus.
Despite these improving fundamentals, many airlines continue to trade at valuations that appear more consistent with a period of crisis than with the early stages of a new growth cycle.
Market history suggests that the most attractive opportunities often emerge when positive developments have yet to be fully reflected in share prices.
Andrievskii Verdict
If lower oil prices persist and the conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine gradually move toward resolution, European aviation has every opportunity to become one of the most attractive cyclical sectors of the second half of 2026. By the time the market fully recognises this reality, the most attractive entry prices may already be gone.
Aleksei Andrievskii | Advisory Board Member, Bendura Bank AG | Liechtenstein