Let us begin with numbers — dry, unromantic, and yet strangely invigorating, like a cup of coffee one did not ask for, but ends up needing anyway:
Norwegian Air Shuttle: +6.93%
Finnair Oyj: +6.78%
Air France-KLM: +10.71%
Deutsche Lufthansa AG: +8.26%
The market, in its usual charming defiance of logic, has chosen optimism. Bad news has arrived neatly packaged, and investors — with admirable consistency — have decided to buy first and think later.
At the center of today’s performance stands Deutsche Lufthansa AG, a company that has just announced it will be paying dearly for fuel — and is being rewarded for the honesty.
€1.7 Billion in Fuel — and Not the Worst of It
Lufthansa expects rising jet fuel prices to cost it an additional €1.7 billion this year, amid tensions around the Strait of Hormuz and the ever-present possibility that energy markets might choose chaos over stability.
For now, there are no acute shortages. Which is corporate language for saying: nothing is wrong yet, but we have already begun to worry professionally.
The response is as predictable as a sunrise:
· raise ticket prices,
· trim flight schedules,
· accelerate restructuring.
· In other words, pass the burden along with grace and a boarding pass.
War Disrupts — and Inconveniently Stimulates
The conflict in the Middle East has disrupted key aviation routes, closed hubs, and complicated logistics in ways that would trouble even the most optimistic planner.
And yet — in a twist the market finds oddly agreeable — demand has risen.
Lufthansa reports:
· €8.7 billion in revenue (+8%)
· a reduced operating loss of €612 million (down from €722 million)
Which is to say, the company is still losing money — just more efficiently. And efficiency, as markets have repeatedly demonstrated, is a virtue worthy of reward.
With Gulf hubs disrupted, passengers have turned to alternative routes. Lufthansa, not wishing to waste a perfectly good crisis, expanded long-haul services to Asia and Africa while suspending flights to several Middle Eastern destinations.
Outlook: Better — With a Hint of Trouble
The company maintains its guidance: adjusted operating profit is expected to come in significantly above €2 billion.
But it does so with a polite warning — risks have risen.
Which, in market terms, often translates as: we acknowledge reality, but will proceed upward regardless.
Beyond Lufthansa: A Sector Finds Its Wings Again
While Deutsche Lufthansa AG wrestles with rising costs, the broader aviation sector appears to have rediscovered its appetite for altitude.
Finnair is quietly reshaping routes and restoring profitability.
Norwegian Air Shuttle is emerging from restructuring with unexpected discipline.
Air France-KLM is reacquainting itself with margins.
Qantas continues to benefit from its geographic fortune.
International Airlines Group proceeds calmly, collecting passengers and profits with equal indifference.
What we are witnessing is no mere rebound. It is a trend — the kind that is obvious only after it has rewarded those who acted early.
The Old Rule, Rarely Followed
One is reminded here of the maxim often attributed to Nathan Rothschild:
buy when there is blood in the streets.
The aviation sector, not long ago, offered an abundance of such opportunities.
Naturally, most declined them.
It is far more comfortable to invest once the skies have cleared and prices have risen — a habit the market generously accommodates.
Andriyevskii’s Verdict
Andriyevskii offers a conclusion with admirable restraint:
“Lufthansa today represents the market in miniature: costs are rising, risks are rising, and yet so are expectations. Investors are no longer asking whether problems exist — only whether companies can pass them on. For now, they can. That is enough.”
Final Thought
If Mark Twain had taken an interest in markets, he might have observed that they possess a peculiar talent:they improve in spirit precisely when circumstances do not.
Lufthansa pays more for fuel.The sector rises nonetheless.
And the market, with its usual composure, insists this makes perfect sense.
Aleksei Andrievskii is the founder of the ANDRIEVSKII SEA WEALTH family office in Cyprus, a member of the advisory board at Bendura Bank AG, Liechtenstein