The rally in critical minerals is shifting gears. After a sharp run in prices through 2025, investors are now turning to a more nuanced question: when will mining equities tied to rare-earth magnets and tungsten fully reprice to reflect tightening supply and strategic demand?
Early signals suggest the process has begun — but the most significant re-rating may still lie ahead, particularly for companies exposed to magnet metals.
A Market Moving From Shock to Structure
The surge in prices for magnet inputs such as neodymium and praseodymium was initially driven by supply concerns and renewed industrial demand. Tungsten followed with an even sharper spike, fueled by geopolitical constraints and its role in defense manufacturing.
Yet equity markets have been slower to respond.
Rather than pricing in a sustained cycle, investors have treated much of the move as transitory — a typical commodity spike rather than the start of a structural shift. This hesitation has created a gap between spot prices and equity valuations, particularly in rare-earth mining.
Rare Earths: The Next Leg Higher?
The rare-earth sector — especially magnet materials used in electric vehicles and wind turbines — appears to be entering a second phase.
The first phase, visible through 2025 and early 2026, was defined by price momentum and speculative positioning. Several producers saw shares double as neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr) prices surged.
The next phase hinges on execution.
Projects outside China are moving closer to operational scale, with new processing capacity expected to come online over the next 12 to 24 months. As these facilities transition from development to revenue generation, investors are likely to reassess valuation multiples.
Crucially, attention is shifting toward heavy rare earths such as dysprosium and terbium — materials essential for high-performance magnets and far more constrained in supply.
If shortages in these elements become more visible, the sector could enter a full re-rating cycle.
Tungsten: A Rally Already in Motion
Tungsten tells a different story.
Prices surged dramatically through 2025, in some cases tripling, as China tightened export flows and defense demand strengthened. Mining equities reacted quickly, with several small-cap producers delivering outsized gains.
Now, in 2026, the market appears to be digesting those moves.
Unlike rare earths, tungsten is not tied to a single transformative demand trend such as electrification. Its use cases — while critical — are more mature and cyclical. That makes the current rally more vulnerable to supply responses.
As new projects advance, the risk of price stabilization increases, potentially capping further upside in equities.
Timing the Re-Rating
The divergence between the two sectors is becoming clearer:
Rare earths (magnets): Early-stage re-rating, with a larger move likely between late 2026 and 2027
Tungsten: Mid-cycle, with much of the repricing already underway in 2025–2026
For rare earths, the inflection point will come when financial results validate the narrative — when companies demonstrate not just exposure to rising prices, but consistent margins and contracted demand.
For tungsten, the focus shifts to sustainability. Investors will watch closely for signs that supply is catching up, which could mark the end of the current cycle.
Strategic Metals, Strategic Capital
Government policy is another critical variable.
Efforts in the U.S., Europe and allied nations to build independent supply chains for critical minerals are accelerating. Subsidies, offtake agreements and defense contracts are beginning to reshape the investment landscape — particularly for rare-earth producers.
This policy backdrop reinforces the idea that the rare-earth story is structural, not cyclical.
Andrievskii Verdict
The critical minerals trade is evolving from a price story into an earnings story.
Tungsten has already seen a rapid repricing, driven by supply shocks and geopolitical tension. Rare-earth magnets, by contrast, remain earlier in the cycle — with the potential for a broader and more sustained re-rating as new capacity comes online and shortages become harder to ignore.
For investors, the distinction matters.
The next phase of gains is unlikely to come from metals alone, but from the market’s willingness to believe that this time, the cycle may last.
Aleksei Andrievskii is the founder of the ANDRIEVSKII SEA WEALTH family office in Cyprus, a member of the advisory board at Bendura Bank AG, Liechtenstein