Tungsten — a critical industrial metal few outside manufacturing, defense, and high-tech circles think about — has become one of the standout commodity stories of 2025–26. Prices have surged more than 500% over the past year, and while markets have already repriced the metal, analysts and industry watchers believe the rally is far from over.
For investors, manufacturers and policymakers alike, the shift reflects a deeper transformation in global commodity markets: strategic materials once deemed obscure are rapidly becoming central to national security and industrial strategy.
The Basics: Why Tungsten Matters
Tungsten’s appeal isn’t hype — it stems from its unmatched physical properties. With the highest melting point of any metal (~3,422 °C) and extremely high density, it is essential in applications that range from machining tools and high-speed cutting inserts to military armor-piercing ammunition, aerospace components, and semiconductor manufacturing.
These characteristics make tungsten effectively irreplaceable in many uses, meaning demand is highly inelastic even when prices spike.
How Prices Ballooned 500%
1) Supply Is Shockingly Tight
China dominates the world’s tungsten supply — historically producing ~75–80% of the metal. But Beijing’s recent measures have dramatically throttled exports through a combination of export licensing rules and quota cuts.
Export controls now require special permits, often with end-use declarations, slowing shipments and reducing volumes available outside China. Concurrently, annual tungsten mining quotas in China have been reduced for multiple consecutive years, squeezing upstream raw material supply.
Lower ore grades and tougher environmental rules in key mining regions have compounded this, pushing production costs up and output down.
2) Inventories Are Depleted
With producers holding tight to stocks and buyers unable to secure new supply, inventories have shrunk to historically low levels. This lack of cushion amplifies price moves, especially in thin markets where even modest demand changes ripple through pricing.
3) Demand Is Broad and Growing
At the same time supply has tightened, demand has held up — and grown across key sectors:
Defense spending — tungsten is critical for armor and penetrators.
Aerospace & electrification — advanced manufacturing relies on carbide tooling.
Strategic materials planning — governments are stockpiling critical minerals.
Unlike commodities like oil or copper, tungsten has few close substitutes, meaning demand destruction happens very slowly as prices rise.
China’s Role: Strategic Dominance and Export Policy
China’s centrality to tungsten markets is both a driver and a risk:
Beijing’s export licensing and quotas have effectively tightened global supply.
China’s internal demand, including through domestic manufacturing and stockpiling, absorbs more material each year.
These policies have contributed directly to unprecedented price levels for ammonium paratungstate (APT) — the key traded intermediate product — and other tungsten products.
Will the Rally Continue?
Most analysts think yes — at least in the near-to-medium term.
Supply Constraints Won’t Ease Quickly
New tungsten mines outside China take years to permit, fund and build, and most existing deposits are small or uneconomic at current price levels. Recycling and artisanal production can add volume, but not nearly enough to replace China’s exports.
Demand Is Sticky or Rising
Even if high prices slow some demand, tungsten’s critical applications make broad substitution difficult. Defense and aerospace continue to grow demand independently of price moves.
High Prices Spur Investment — Eventually
In commodity markets, the cure for high prices is high prices: they encourage new supply and substitution. But in tungsten’s case, the lead time to new production is long, meaning prices could remain elevated for years.
What This Means for Global Markets
Manufacturers face higher tooling and production costs as tungsten feeds into industrial machinery.
Defense planners may increasingly treat tungsten as a strategic supply chain risk.
Investors in mining and critical metals could see rising interest and capital flows.
Ultimately, tungsten’s steep price increase is not just a cyclical spike — it reflects broader structural shifts: tightening supplies, geopolitical competition for critical minerals, and rising industrial demand that are unlikely to reverse quickly.
Top Tungsten Producers: Market Positions & Stories
Below is a comparative snapshot of key listed players in the tungsten space, with a bullish slant on their strategic role in the tightening market:
1. Almonty Industries Inc. (AII.TO) — The Western Tungsten Heavyweight
Business: One of the few large-scale Western tungsten producers, with operating mines in Europe and Asia and ramp-up at the flagship Sangdong Mine in South Korea.
Bullish Case: Almonty has binding offtake agreements supplying tungsten oxide to U.S. defense contractors at premium prices, with no upside cap — a huge validation of its strategic role.
Vision: Aims to supply ~40% of non-China tungsten market and build a geopolitically aligned supply chain.
Growth Catalysts: Sangdong Phase II expansion targeting up to ~460,000 MTU/yr; long-life Panasqueira operations; expanding into tungsten oxide processing.
Risk Factor: Near-term cash losses due to expansion costs, though revenue and profits have improved with higher prices and production scale.
Bullish Outlook: The cornerstone Western tungsten producer — benefiting from structural supply deficits and high strategic demand.
2. EQ Resources Limited (EQR.AX) — The Production Powerhouse (Australia/Spain)
Business: Owns multiple tungsten operations (including Mt Carbine and Saloro) producing significant tonnages now, not years away.
Bullish Case: EQR is projected to become one of the largest tungsten producers outside China, with possible 300,000–400,000 MTU+ annual output by 2026–27.
Valuation Disconnect: Markets currently price EQR at a fraction of its production potential, making it a high-leverage producer play.
Edge: Already producing and generating cash in a tight market, while many peers are still development projects.
Bullish Outlook: High growth + production advantage at current elevated price levels markets undervalue.
3. Tungsten West plc (TUN.L) — Europe’s Potential Large Producer
Business: Focused on restarting the massive Hemerdon tungsten-tin mine in Devon, UK — one of the world’s largest tungsten deposits outside China.
Bullish Case: Hemerdon’s resource could deliver a huge annual tungsten output in a stable, Western jurisdiction.
Current Reality: The company is still funding and development stage with ongoing project financing and feasibility work.
Risk Factor: Execution and financing remain near-term hurdles.
Bullish Outlook: If Hemerdon restarts, it could reshape European tungsten supply — making TUN.L an asymmetric growth play.
4. Guardian Metal Resources PLC (GMET.L) — U.S. Strategic Supply Builder
Business: Nevada-focused development company with the Pilot Mountain and Tempiute projects, among the largest undeveloped tungsten resources in the U.S.
Bullish Case: With federal backing (including Dept. of War funding) and export restrictions tightening supply, domestic U.S. tungsten assets are in high strategic demand.
Development Stage: Moves from pure exploration toward structured project development and pre-feasibility work.
Bullish Outlook: A prime beneficiary of U.S. defense and supply chain diversification initiatives.
5. AMERICANTU FPO [AT4] (AT4.AX) — Emerging Australian Developer
Overview: A smaller ASX-listed tungsten play in early development.
Bullish Case: In a market where most non-Chinese supply is scarce, even early entrants like AMERICANTU can see valuation rerating if projects advance toward production.
Bullish Outlook: Exploration/development leverage in a market starved for new supply.
6. Tungsten Mining NL (TGN.AX) — Big Potential, Deep Value
Business: Early-stage Australian tungsten miner with a large resource and long mine life potential.
Bullish Case: Could become a large-scale producer as tungsten prices stay elevated — low current valuation leaves room for significant rerating.
Bullish Outlook: High optionality if project development accelerates with financing.
7. American Tungsten Corp. (TUNG.CN) — U.S. Exploration with Emerging Assets
Business: Developing the IMA tungsten asset in Idaho with several drill results showing meaningful grades.
Bullish Case: Small cap, high-growth junior with promising early drilling results — big upside if resource definition and permitting succeed.
Bullish Outlook: Pure junior exploration leverage in a tight, strategic market.
Bullish Summary: Why This Market Has Legs
Supply Deficits Deepen: With China controlling up to ~80% of global tungsten and export controls cutting shipments, the shortage picture is worsening.
Demand Is Strategic: Defense, aerospace, energy, and high-tech industries all can’t easily substitute tungsten — even at higher prices.
Western Supply Diversification: Governments are actively backing domestic and allied supply chains — a structural catalyst supporting premium pricing and long-term contracts.
This is not a fleeting cycle. It’s a transition to structurally higher price levels and re-rated strategic assets — making tungsten producers among the most compelling critical mineral plays of 2026.
Aleksei Andrievskii is the founder of the ANDRIEVSKII SEA WEALTH family office in Cyprus, a member of the advisory board at Bendura Bank AG, Liechtenstein